Running Good

The human psyche is much more adept at spotting downswings than upswings. Even the term Variance is interesting. I would estimate that it’s use in everyday poker language is a 20:1 ratio applied to negative events over the equally common (zero sum game) positive outcomes of variance. This is synonymous with us believing that we’re either playing very well or being very unlucky all the time, plain silly.

Maths guys have HEM to thank for a heightened awareness of where we really sit. Whilst my recent form and upbeat posts may lead you to believe that I’m right on top of my game, I may have mislead you. Not intentionally, as I certainly have nothing to complain about. The fact is that I’ve just been running incredibly well.

The next chart is a useful measure of luck (not the full picture, of course) with the faint line representing my true EV adjusted for equity at the time of the AI.



Now, the volatile psychological emotional persona that I am may be exuding more confidence at the table. And as Doyle says, you should always play your rushes. I certainly think that my opponents are sensing a confident aggressive opponent that should be tangled with sparingly. And online, this is for the most part picked up from results and betting patterns in the current session. Last night I min-raised five Omaha hands pre-flop and picked up the blinds uncontested each time. Unheard of for me.

Why then can’t I bottle this approach to Omaha? One, I wouldn’t want to because you can’t bottle the exceptional luck that was required to produce the results. Secondly, because I’m an emotional human with constantly varying degrees of tiredness, confidence, goals etc. Only last night I was watching a WSOP recording while clicking away, hardly ideal.

Finally, BCG explained very eloquently in his response to a question posed by Yorkie that the negative utility of losing a dollar amount far outweighs the equivalent benefit from posting the same win. Therein, we have the essence of Tilt. Emotionally it affects us much more than the rush that the pessimist in us knows is going to come to an end relatively soon.

Tilt avoidance is much talked about but obviously extremely difficult in practice. I play sub-optimally every session (according to Sklansky’s definition), hence all we’re talking about really is trying to minimise the degree of tilt. I haven’t read Tommy’s book, so I must.

Right at this moment though, I don’t care, I’m running great!

Macau Trip Report

I’ve felt as if I’ve been reaping some of the benefits of a few years of study over the last couple of months by more than holding my own in various live settings. I’m divided between which I enjoy more, live or online play. The truth is that they are very different and have various pros and cons. I’m very lucky to be able to enjoy both.

Macau Trip Report
I needed to go to Macau on an expenses paid Business Trip staying at the MGM Grand. Having enjoyed the poker room in the Vegas sister hotel just over a month before, how could I say no? Mega-tip for Aussies, check out Viva Macau Airlines. Obviously casino funded, this budget airline was well below half the cost of Qantas/BA/Cathay Pacific and by flying direct into Macau, saved me 5 hours on each leg. More on this later.

Now, when I was at Uni or when I just started working, I spent many an hour sleeping at the bottom of telephone boxes in London to keep warm waiting for the first form of transport toward home. An experience that not only lets you appreciate any class of hotel room, but realise what a waste it is to leave a fancy room unattended. Hence, knowing that I’d be out of the room for most of the time, I invited one of my poker buddies to fly up and use the room. With a text response “OMG … she said yes” and a quick change of booking from King to 2 Twins and we were set.

Flight and transfer went well. The first very minor hiccup was that our room was dark and unmade when we checked in. Less than 10 minutes later, we’d been upgraded to an Ocean View on a higher floor, free internet and free mini-bar for the duration of our stay. Free-rolling already.

Even though there is very little poker in Macau, it didn’t take us long to track it down. Star Worlds Casino around the corner had just opened their room. When we walked in, we knew which of the four active tables that we wouldn’t be sitting at. The one with Jeff Lisandro playing $1000/$2000 blinds. Approx equivalent of $150/$300, Jeff was big stack with about US$70K, 3 locals and 4 internet older kids having between $30K-$50K each. The accessibility of standing extremely close to World Champions plying their trade for significant sums is pretty unique to poker and a privilege.

Jeff entered very few pots and when he did had the ability to be incredibly intimidating. Not in a Prahlad Freidman sense, just an intense Ivey-like stare. It also whips up out of the blue. He studies the cards and then picks his moment to instantly stare which I must confess was even disconcerting for me on the rail just imagining how I’d react. I’m convinced that when I was there that he played perfect poker. Which was impressive as this was just another day at the office.

I’ve always read to be wary jumping into the first game you find when you land, so we moved on to the Lisboa. First thing to note is that there are two and we were in the old one which really was an opportunity to step back in time. We loved this place which was round with a Monte Carlo feel and more than a hint of Asia. Alas, no poker, so off we went over the confusing maze of passageways and footbridges to the Grand Lisboa and its PokerStars branded Poker Room. More Vegas-like, sort of, there were 6 smoke filled (and I mean smoke filled) tables going. Min buy-in was HKD1000-3000 (approx US$150-500). Long story short, my mate and I decided to take 50% of each other’s action and made a small profit to start the trip off well.

In Macau, they not only smoke at the table, they blow right in your face. It is disgusting and if you won’t be able to put up with it, do yourself a favour and not go to Macau. Everywhere is the same.

Next day was a walking tour which I would never have done alone. My friend is organised and had planned what we wanted to see. Macau was a Portuguese colony and trading hub port. It is steeped in the adventure of Marco Polo and his peers followed closely by a strong missionary influence. It is all within walking distance and well worth seeing. The beer and noodles at the end of the neo-classic churches was very welcome as we were famished and exhausted.

I was then attending my conference for the remainder of the trip, fitting in a few evening sessions. I finished the trip up overall but didn’t make nearly as much as Vegas and certainly not with the same ease. The games were a lot less textbook and bet-sizing very unpredictability. The game theory guys would have a field day, no doubt, but I always struggle with making bets based on very wide ranges. Just seems like gambling which isn’t my particular cup of tea. I know that I’m missing out on EV opportunities but my bankroll management considerations take precedence and I’m comfortable with that.

My friend entered a US$120 buy-in tourney with 37 entries that paid top 5. He was short-stacked when he spiked a 1-outer 3 on the river to triple up with 13 players left. From there he nursed his small stack, occasionally putting it at risk with well timed AIs. He was the darling of the railbirds when big stack after big stack clashed and fell by the wayside. Lo and behold, he limped into 4th for a $500 pay day that compensated for his minor losses for the trip. Macau was the toughest live game that he’d faced and he almost broke even overall, a credible result. He is way more experienced now and that has been reflected in local games that he’s played since his return. There is no substitute for training at altitude.

To cap off the trip, Viva Macau flew us home in style again. I mentioned the cheap fares above. What I left out was that there were 76 passengers on our 737 on the flight to Macau and only 56 on the way back. We all had a row to ourselves. I slept the entire journey both times – happy days! For the record, all other Australian delegates at the Conference chose the Qantas flights as being more reliable. They paid twice as much to sit upright, transfer to a ferry in HK and have a rough sea trip – I’m glad that I will never be that corporatized.

In summary, Macau was well worth one trip for me, but no immediate urge to go back. Primarily because casino games no longer do it for me and poker remains very embryonic there. Also, so close after Vegas, there is no comparison. Vegas, the poker player is treated like a king and it is definitely the entertainment capital of the world.

Online Omaha
One swallow does not make a summer! I’ve just had a bluebird. A PLO400 player sat at our PLO100 table when I had $300 in front and potted almost every hand pre and re-potted the flop. I played about 50% of the hands I entered with him because I hit a purple patch. Obviously he didn’t always have the goods and in fact, I don’t think I lost a single hand to him. Almost 1 hour of rope-a-dope, I stood up as it was well past my bedtime with $830 in front.

My PLO100 lifetime stats now reflect a mere $5 loss and if I can keep it that way for 10,000 more hands and add a few BB/100, I may be able to secure the confidence to take the occasional realistic shot at PLO200, the first level that you can grind out a living at this game. I still have many, many leaks to plug so there is plenty of room for improvement. More happy days!

Home Game Invitational APPT Teams Qualifier
See last post for the format. I came 5th in week 1. Got off to a good start during the rebuy period building my 10K starting stack to 27K. I tried not to sit back and coast but I may have overdone it a little seeing too many flops with KQ type hands. Card dead on the flops, I dropped slowly to 20K by the break. Still above average. There were 4 re-buys which were added to the prize pool and split by the top 3. My Macau buddy cashed again, coming 3rd.

I was going to look for tactics for next week but after coming 5th it is as if nothing has changed for me. I need a top 4 finish to be pretty sure of getting in and below that I just need the other results to go my way. Beyond that I won’t say too much more as a few of my opponents have discovered this blog. Roll on the 20th and all being well a small APPT entry.

Congratulations to The Serpent
The Serpent is probably the most popular of our home game buddies and in the local pub Tourney we had a special week with the entry raised from $27 to $55. The Serpent amassed a big stack early, sucking out with a straight against Double Barrel. He used the chips well and is the master of comedy, so a good night was had by all when he won for $900. In true Serpent style, he went on to shout a round. Further congratulations due soon as he gets married in a couple of weeks.

Durrrr Challenge
Halfway there and Durrr is up $750K … check out these hands, especially the last one; the joys of being pot committed.

October in Review

October had a lot to live up to after Vegas, Ireland and China and a solid period of PLO on Full Tilt last month. It has been an eventful roller-coaster month.

Crown Casino Melbourne Trip Report
Another trip report for Yorkie. Crown Poker Room in Melbourne is the home of the Aussie Millions. It is undoubtedly one of the world's great poker rooms. Crown décor is well above average. The spacious well lit room enjoys a salubrious sobriety conducive to poker. Crown has secured approval to extend with another 15 tables and will be spreading further toward the PokerPro area.

The staff are knowledgeable, friendly and for the most part in control. I’ve been impressed over the years with many of the rulings that are made and how they are made. On this trip, we had a big stack chip down from ~$400 to below $100 when he went to the bathroom. We all knew and the dealer asked him and he denied it. The supervisor was informed subtely a few hands later and very effectively with a 30 second quiet conversation away from the table which probably went along the lines of “we can go to the cameras and ban you or you can take the chips out of your pocket”, the chip stack was sheepishly restored from the previously vocal player who never spoke from that point forward.

Crown players for the most part respect the etiquette of the game. Dealer and player abuse are kept to a minimum. Talking about the current hand is prohibited and policed for the protection of recreational players. In general, newcomers are very welcome and made feel at home. This is great for the local poker economy. I suspect that the original players established this culture early and the poker room management built upon it over the years. I really recommend Crown as a top poker destination to anyone. The only drawback for overseas visitors is the excessive Australian rake structures.

I was lucky in the couple of days that I was there and won a few buy-ins at the $1/$2 NLH tables. I played in the $2/$5 but got outplayed and scraped a breakeven session. Then I played the most gut wrenching form of poker ever. Before scrolling down, see if you can guess what it was. It’s the game and its structure that made for the most heart thumping session I’ve ever played. And I wasn’t even involved in most of the hands being the only nit at the table.

APPT Freeroll at Star City
Star City has opened a new poker room with a bit of fanfare and a mid-week freeroll that you needed to sign up for in person a few days before. With a field of 250 and 150 more alternates it was always going to be a crapshoot. Our starting stacks were 2000 and the blind levels 15 mins. We lost half of the 400 runners within 3 levels and were at 120 players by the 2hr break. Final table of 10 got paid, top 3 with APPT packages and next 7 with $330 Satellite tickets.

Back to the logistics, Star City shouted beers, champagne, wine and nibblies before the event which they really didn’t need to do but was a nice gesture. May seem like an odd thing to write for you overseas folks but here in Oz, the casinos don’t do anything for the poker players other than run a good,clean game. Not a whinge, just an observation. Eric Assadourian and Grant Levy, two Team Pokerstars locals and room ambassadors said a few words. The event was a big success and Star City got the full room photo shoots that they were looking for.

As for the room, they’ve tried to do the right thing with décor. They’ve retained the rigid chairs from downstairs which are adequate but no more. The biggest issue is the room that they’ve allocated. With its low ceilings it is very claustrophobic. There is no rail worth talking about which will be a big issue for the upcoming APPT and will minimise the likelihood of recreational passers-by giving live poker a go.

Despite being free, my experience left me as flat as I’ve experienced only twice before in my six years of live poker. Once in the Fitzwilliam Club, Dublin, when my K9 ran into KK on a K99 board after 7 hours of building my stack to 5xBI. Similarly, at Crown in the early hours one morning, the two big stacks went AI with my flopped 2 pair facing pocket rockets. The blank Turn wasn’t so blank when the river came runner runner 4s for my largest counterfeit to date. On both occasions, hours of solid grind went down the drain. I’ve had the opposite happen, but that tends to be mid-session as I rarely quit as a monster stack.

Back to my freeroll experience. Crapshoots don’t suit my nitty tournament style so I was pleased to negotiate the early rounds, picking up a couple of hands and stealing selectively to stay above average for every level. I had one mega suckout making my overset on the river against a flopped set.

We were down to 34 players and all was going well until the player to my right sat down. He was AI 4 out of 7 hands and showed pocket 66s, and 8 and a 3 in 3 of the hands. I stayed out of his way. Then a guy opposite led out AI from UTG with an M of 6. He hadn’t played a hand in 3 or 4 orbits so my pocket 99s were a coinflip at best I thought and folded in late position as I didn’t need to get involved. Two hands later and aggro on my right is AI from the SB when I look down to find AK. I thought about it for a little while but never really considered folding. Blinds were 1500/3000 and I was above average with 19.5K but my M was less than 5 given the crapshoot structure. Needless to say, he had 86o and flopped an 8 and I was crippled. I did triple up and managed to make it to the last 24 but I was never a threat again. I must confess that I was flat until lunchtime the next day as I’d worked so hard and played pretty well, I thought.

It was an insight into what the Poker Road guys talk about a lot. Live MTTs are brutal. Mike and Adam on the 2+2 Pokercast had a good session on the viability of MTT pros recently and copped a bit of criticism from listeners for being too negative. In my opinion it was spot on and no-one knows more about the subject than their guest, Sheets. Check it out if you haven’t already.

Online Omaha
My online game is exclusively PLO now. I’ve had a good month with brutal variance. I feel like my game is improving and I’m likely playing too many hands. I could benefit from better game selection but I’m taking on all-comers at the minute. My HEM alerts me to who’s who though. I’ve been a more regular player at the PLO100 level and haven’t lost my shirt as muh as the past. I have run good and my AI EV has balanced back level after approx 20000 hands.

Sweetest pot came where I was down 4 BIs after genuinely being smacked by the deck when I flopped middle pair and the NFD. Preflop raiser, raised the pot again. His range includes rundowns so he may have a set of AAA now, or not, I called to see what the flop would bring. Actually, I flopped a set 555 to go with my NFD and it obviously blanked the villain. He pushed AI somehow and we went to the river which gave him a FH. Very luckily, hero caught runner, runner quads for a $331 pot and it was game on again. I went on to build my stack up to $650+ before needing to step away from the table for real life reasons.

It’s taken a while, but I can’t see me returning to NLH again. It’s like riding a bike in terms of beating recreational players and I recognise that I’m never going to be able to compete with the internet kids that take the game seriously. Omaha, I’m already ahead of the inevitable wave of recreational migrants that the next few years will bring. I want to be able to compete effectively at PLO200 (a tough goal in my opinion) and then I’ll look at the next logical progression, PLO8.

Friday Night Home Game
My favourite form of poker is without a doubt our Friday night home game. We had two this month and as usual I managed to finish up. Unless you get unlucky, with a solid style of poker you should pull out a profit almost every game as it is so loose. The big pots can be dangerous because you can be up against anything. Playing against the other guys range probably needs to be done sparingly as it is so wide you’d be playing way too many hands to showdown.

The last game was the harder night at the office. I was card dead for the best part of 4 hours but managed to eek out tripling my stack to ~$150 when I flopped a set, built the pot and then got it AI on the Turn. I was called by a bare gutshot by a bigger stack (not atypical in our game) and my stack was gone when it hit on the river. I reloaded for the allowed double BI which kicks in after a few hours (blinds stay at their irrelevant same).

We’d started at 6pm and finished at 3am. When I cashed out, two double ups had me $350 in profit. This is the one game on earth that Phil Hellmuths book can teach you to beat.

Home Game Invitational APPT Teams Qualifier
No home games next month as we’re moving to a 16-player Invitational format to put 3 teams into the APPT. $230 each will raise the $3300 required. The winning 6 players will get a piece of each others action. Teams will comprise first and second etc. Any team cashing will keep 50% of winnings with the other two teams getting 25% each. With 6 out of 16 getting through the odds are good. The blind structure will be slow with a 7pm shuffle up and deal and approx 2am finish. Cash game will start up as people are knocked out.

If you have a chance to think about strategy, I’d be grateful. The points on the first night are … and the second night, doubled to reflect … Essentially the first night is like a barrier draw and will likely just go toward separating places 5 thru 8 on the second night. I’d be interested in your opinions as to how I should approach the first night. Ultimately the cards will decide, but in the case of coin flips etc, should I just make sure to get in the top half, top 6, go for the win or what? I’ll probably post how I go after week 1 and look for advice on making the top 6 overall in week 2.

Local Live Tournament Chip Chops
These are a fixed time tournament with a $50 BI, 25c/50c blinds and a pro-rata pay structure. Essentially a rake free cash game apart from a $5 admin fee for the Tourney organiser. The finite time period makes it a tournament and legal in NSW. In my opinion, continuing to push the boundaries of legality may result in further regulation in the not too distant future as Casino lobby groups etc may start to be impacted. Until now, they’ve been a beneficiary of the poker boom and recreational players, but creating significant competition is a different matter.

My results over the month were positive with 2 biggish wins $200+ (which is an obscene BB/100 rate) and on one occasion a $50 loss. I spend most of my time getting the game going and organising the cashing in/out of chips etc, with rebuys, so I’m not giving it my full attention. Consequently, there is little of no fancy play syndrome. Just basic T/A ABC big pot deep stack poker. If only the cash games were this good online.

Most Exhausting Poker Session I’ve Ever Player
OK, at the Crown Casino, I took my first crack at live Omaha. It was a form that I’d never played before, Limit Omaha. I’ve played PLO and Limit HE, so it can’t be much different, right? Wrong! This game was wild and GUT WRENCHING. I wasn’t in most of the hands but it’s as close as I’ve seen to grown men crying.

At least once every two orbits, we’d see a pot capped 7-way. In a $10/$20 game, we’re talking $280 preflop up for grabs. Needless to say, in Omaha, if the other streets weren’t getting capped too you’ be getting the odds to chase runner runner quads every time nearly. Raise, re-raise was the order of the day. Or raise, call, call, call, call, call, call was another likely scenario. If you had the nuts on the Turn you were trying to fade well over half the pack nearly every time.

I seen monster stacks crippled in just one orbit. The worst suckouts ever. The most tilt ever. They dropped like flys and the cash accumulated. I don’t know how this game keeps getting up. Luckily it was my first foray into live Omaha and my propensity was to learn from the experience. I played ultra tight, maybe VPIP 15% and score a very easy $350 profit. I wish I lived in Melboune and got another crack at the game.

I was literally exhausted after the session. It was such an emotional rollercoaster for those around me and every turn of a card brought drama. If you’ve never experienced live Limit Omaha played like this, I recommend trying it at least once in your life.


Conclusion
Being a slacko with updating my blog has had the benefit of allowing me a high level perspective. Overall, a very positive month where I feel that I can hold my own in a number of environments. Poker as a career is no longer something I aspire to. But poker as a very profitable and stimulating pasttime seems very attainable. Given that this journey all started with a very at risk $25, I may well have exceeded my expectations already. Let's hope my good fortune continues throughout November.

It will all kick off for me in Macau where live poker is only just starting to mature amongst $41b of gambling revenue per annum which generates $5.1bn in government income. Wish me luck with the crasians.

Vegas Trip Report

I’m pleased to report that my lack of posts for a month was more to do with being a slacko rather than busto. The ultimate poker player’s paradise, Vegas was every bit as good as I imagined it. Multiple days of jet lag spent on Aussie time, sleeping most of the day and up all night.

Results Oriented
My priorities were to have fun and leave Vegas unscathed. I held my own on the felt by playing the lowest limits with mostly recreational players. I found the games soft and was able to assess playing styles and abilities relatively quickly.

I arrived with under $200 and managed to cover all of my expenses for the week. First session I was down to $120 after cabs and bought in for $100. I was quickly on a roll with 5 winning sessions in a row. Then I was silly enough to play the only table open in the Rio with grinders on the graveyard shift. This dented my BR as I was now playing a game with myself to see if I could leave Vegas without visiting the ATM.

My very limited bankroll (self discipline) curtailed any temptation at upping redline aggression and instead I played relatively nitty, taking positional opportunities when they arose. Pocket QQs were particularly kind UTG. I’d limp knowing that a raise wouldn’t be far away. An early raise of $10 might see 5 limpers and then I’d shove AI and take it down preflop, worked every time.

My best results came in the cheapest game in town, Bill’s Gamblin’ Hall, with its $5.99 Steak and Eggs, 50c/$1 blinds and $200 BI. A little predatory, it was the softest night game in town with a great view.


Poker Rooms
Spoilt for choice, I probably played in 25 poker rooms as I cruised the Strip. In approximate order, I liked the Venetian, Bellagio, Caesars, MGM, Excalibur, Binion’s (for traditition), Bill’s (for profit), Paris etc. Only disappointments were the Hard Rock which could only rustle up 2 tables on Saturday night and the Rio (where I stayed) which was the worst.

Grinding
I learned a lot about the lifestyle by talking to the Vegas grinders in the graveyard shifts. For example, they put in 7 hours per day at the Rio and get entry into a $2000 freeroll with about 15 runners, final table getting paid. Also, 125 hours per month at Harrahs tables gets you $650 cash. These guys take nitty and bonus chasing to a whole new level.

My tale of woe was C-Betting a steal attempt on the first hand of the FR to rise above average. Then 2nd hand, blinds 25/50, grinder UTG makes it 200 to go, I look down at AKs in the CO and decide to call as more than half the field get paid so no need to get too rash early. Flop A94 with 2 diamonds. Grinder leads out for 200, I make it 600 and he called. Flop comes diamond, he bets 1500 and I had to decide was it a flush or air. These guys are so intent on getting every little promotional edge available, I couldn’t see him busting out 2nd hand, but I managed to convince myself that he might just have AQ or similar with the A of diamond redraw. Alas, no, he had KJ of diamonds and I was on the rail 2nd hand. No doubt, the butt of grinder glee.

Tournaments
My biggest surprise was the number, quality and value of affordable deep stack tourneys that they run. One cash I was proud of was a $120, 7500 chips, paying 9 places with 98 runners at the Venetian. I final tabled, finishing 7th when my pocket 6s got cracked by K5 with the K on the Turn. My pocket rockets held up twice mid-way thru to put me into position me well. This cash was particularly sweet as I was down to my last $3 in US dollars after the buy in. Top 3 paid approx $3K, $2K and $1K so I got my chance to dream, In the end, my welcome $369 payout and 6.5 hours of enjoyment was enough to kickstart the roll again. BTW, no need for an iPod in the Venetian as the music is excellent.

Enjoyment Factor High
There didn’t seem to be too many comps , but I didn’t search any out. I was intent on playing as much poker as possible and had a ball. I was free-rolling and relaxed my no drinking while playing rule from the second day. When it was completely relaxed by the end of the week, I moved to $2/$4 Limit which can be played on auto pilot. In this mode, I met an incredible range of characters all out to have a lot of fun. A poker players paradise!

LAX on my way to LAS

My body thinks its nighttime but the clock says 8:00am, should I use the complimentary beverage voucher. Let me Google the Pope's religeon to decide. So there is only this Post between me and my first Sam Adams in a while, here goes.

First let me start by saying that around Feb time (I think) a number of us bloggers seemed a little flat with our games. With the exception of Jesse, who is a shoe in for a Limit Bracelet one day, we all seem to be doing a bit better of late. For my part here is an update "brag" post. Medium fish in a wee pond stuff.

Sydney Championships, $150 entry, 28 runners, 4th for $403. I'm glad that I didn't play the $770 event as I'm now 3 for 3 in cashes at biggish (for me) PLO Events. Another min cash could have been 2nd if my KK99ss had held up against the chip leader QQ64ss. Runner Runner 6-6 just felt bad. In reality the flop was all low and he had a few outs. My KKxx hit a K on the river AI against AAxx with 7 left, so I'm not complaining. As is usually the case with PLO, by the river I had a whopping 7 outs.

Before flying out at 6am on Sept 11 (I only realised when I got to America), I played our new game at the local Bowling Club. Over the 3 weeks, we've had 4, 5 and then 6 tables. I was packing so missed the Tourney, satisfying my poker craving with the S&G Chip Chop. Ran a double barrel bluff first hand to build my stack but managed to halve it. From there, I resorted to T/A against calling stations and scored a nice $50 on a 0.25c/.50c blind game. Obscene BB/100 if it was to count that way. In reality, its only a couple of big hands that make the difference. You just need to not get unlucky.

I've played every day of FT's Take Two promotion which should be an easy $50 and my redline is going really well. Showdown winnings are well down which is to be expected. Need to work on finding the optimal balance. I find that running the HEM graph along the bottom of the screen provides instant feedback on when my aggression is dropping off. My stats all of a sudden look really good alongside the winning regs, I think.

I got yesterday's game in at Sydney Airport. Was up a healthy amount when my plane was called. The final hand was K44 flop. A shorty raised the pot and I decided to min-raise my 4 to induce the shove with which he duly obliged. He had AAxx obviously and I logged off looking forward to Vegas even more.

And so to Vegas. I'm hoping to check in and go straight to bed with the Hard Rock Casino tonights choice of venue. If I'm feeling jetlaggy, I'm not going to play as I need to pace my finite BR. Hopefully I can win the early sessions and relax in that regard. I have no desire to move above the smaller stakes, just soak up the atmosphere.

OK ... Sam is beckoning ... gl all at the tables.

My first PLO8 MTT win and Sydney Champs

What a difference a day makes. The deck must have read my blog and resented my flippant lack of appreciation for running good. Exacting revenge, it has just slapped me about the face repeatedly. Not one for bad beat stories, let me share with you that the Winnings line has plummeted below my AI EV line, which rose significantly overnight. Good news is that I didn’t Tilt, for which I credit HEM with its visual confirmation that it was just variance.

I was four tabling, with 2 tournaments and 2 FR PLO100 cash games on the go. A tad ambitious or irresponsible perhaps. I almost got ITM with my PLO tourney and came first in the PLO8 one that I was playing in which had 128 runners. Being my first ever PLO8 100+ player tourney win, overall it was a very good evening and another step forward in my pursuit of being an all-round poker player.

My Poker Ranking for the year was 98.71% before last night so I’m keen to see what a small stakes win contributes as I’d like to poke my nose into the top 1%, if only for a day. Not sure of the formula for the rating system, but I know that my ranking has been flattered by running good in a couple of low buy-in events. Having had my fair share of being smacked around the face, I’ll take anything that’s going.

The Sydney Championships are on and there is a $770 PLO Tournament which I would have loved to have played in. In the end, I have decided not to. As I’m off to Vegas on Friday, my $$$s are being conserved to be invested in the cash games over there.

I estimate that I'd be close to neutral EV given the amount of dead money and was really torn between giving it a go or not. Unfortunately, $770 weeds out a lot of the casual dead money that even $550 would attract, so my expectation may well be lower depending on the field size. Less than 100 players would be a pretty strong field, I think. Over that, there just aren’t that many great Omaha players available in Sydney on a Tuesday night.

The deciding factor in the end was the realisation that, for those close to me that don't fully appreciate the variance of poker tournaments, the utility of losing which is the most likely outcome greatly exceeds the utility of a min-cash which is the next most likely scenario.

If I was single, I would give it a shot just to get a chance to pit my wits against The Croc and Eric Assadourian and gauge how far I still need to improve. I know that a lot of the bets that I made last night with the click of a “pot” button, I couldn’t have done live and even if I could, there would have been a million and one tells in the physical activity.

In the end, I'm pleased that I appear to lack the gamble to just throw bankroll requirements out the window and give it a go.

Like Father, like Daughter

What is the Game Theory optimal strategy for the % of times to stick with your Rock, Paper, Scissors selection for the next throw? That was the question posed over dinner last night.

Not sure that we confirmed my guess of 33% when my 17 year old daughter challenged me to a game up to 10. Of course, I accepted. But what happened next was very special for me as the parent of a teenager.

We literally couldn’t continue because we were laughing so much. After about 15 or 20 throws, we had matched each and every time. We were both changing, staying the same, anticipating etc. but every selection we made was identical. Our attempts to outwit each other were identical. As a parent, it really was a very special moment to realise how much is passed on to the next generation. Or am I reading too much into pure coincidence?

As a poker player, I have to wonder how exploitable my poker style is. Am I really that predictable? I’ve thought a little more about it and I wasn’t trying to choose because of what my daughter would pick but rather what a logical person would do. Presumably she was doing the same and consequently predictable to an observant opponent.