$15 + $10 rebuy - 32 Starters, paying 3 spots.
Payout structure is $75, $150 and $250.
Blinds are 5K/10K and we're down to the last 4:
- UTG 8K
short-stack for some time, doubled thru blinds twice
- Button 41K
was short stack but just tripled up
- SB $80K
has only been playing a few weeks and playing a wide range preflop
- BB (Hero) 41K
has tightened up a little on the bubble with high blind structure
UTG folds, Button min-raises to 20K, SB folds. I look down and find AQo in the BB. What should I do, and why?
5 years ago
14 comments:
You have to shove. You cant fold AQ.
If button is a decent player it defo sounds like he wants a call / raise. Or at outside clever play to make you think he has a hand he wants to play with....
Will you post the result?
Just realised you asked why. Here's my thoughts...
* The blinds are eating you up in a couple of orbits
* you don't have time to wait for a better hand
* you stand to be a favourite and only a slight dog to most decent hands
It's a nasty spot. UTG will be all-in next hand, meaning you rate an excellent chance of being in the money if you fold. I also expect the Button to have a very strong hand if he has a clue, because he is minraising into big stacks against the prospect of eliminating the short stack next hand.
If you do fold and UTG goes out you will likely be the left as the short stack. If he manages to win that hand, then suddenly you will be the short stack out of four and left with only 2-3BB.
On balance I think it's a fold if I think the button has a clue. But given that it's pub poker, he probably doesn't and you can shove away.
I'd definitly fold here. UTG will be all in on the BB the very next hand.
Sure Button might be exploiting the bubble, but then again all you have to do is most likely wait one hand to be in the money.
With the blinds at 5k/10k it's pretty much a crapshoot already, so make sure you get rid of that uber shortstack and then try to push small edges.
Too much money on the table. Fortune favours the brave.
Laff, we've both got a lot to learn.
The Blindman and NC appear to be spot on. On balance its a fold. I could have sat it out for $75.
My equity before the hand was 28%
If I fold it becomes 24%
If I call and win (2/3 chance max) it goes to 38%
Call and lose (1/3 chance) 0%
Against any 2 cards AQo is at best 2 to 1 favourite. Against most reasonable ranges it is more like 55% at best.
Button had TT which was good for me and even then it osn't good. I missed and bubbled once more.
Dan Harrington says that the best players don't always win but they do get closer to the money more often.
Small solace in that and the fact that I'm learning from my mistakes, I hope.
No - I still shove. What if you fold and sit there totally card dead for the next few orbits? You end up having to shove any 2 cards anyway so I would rather take my chances now with AQ. If you had shoved and your hand held up, would you be asking this question?
Anyway I would rather have the $250 than the $75.
Also you need to realise that I am currently morphing into an aggro-donk ;)
Is that an ICM calc? Do you have a calculator for that?
ICM aside, mainly I am scared of the strength of the button who is willing to minraise into big stacks when he could fold into a guaranteed $75.
Was this a real situation?
It was an actual hand played at the local RSL Monday night. I came home and posted it when it was fresh in my mind.
As for ICM Calculators, there are multiple show up when Googling "ICM Calculator". For all the programmers out there, this is a cool link http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icm/icmjava.html.
In terms of the hand again, there is a lot to think about. I'm convinced a fold was the right move. That said:
- What kind of hand does he need to make that move with? If a fold is correct, surely any 2 cards will do.
- Is it still a fold with TT, JJ, AKo? If not, is it really that much of a difference against his range.
I do love poker!
Had I won, would I have posted? No, I wouldn't have appreciated the significance of the decision.
That brings up an interesting point. I insta-shoved, partially to warn him off a marginal hand.
That said, I put my tournament life on the line with very little thought when I had already planned to stay out of all confrontations until the short stack busted.
There are multiple ways to play many hands and it must be said that I don't evaluate fully all of the options 95+% of the time. Robotic must equal predictable. More to think about, eh?
"What kind of hand does he need to make that move with? If a fold is correct, surely any 2 cards will do."
If he is a thinking player (surely a flawed assumption in the Pub), he needs a very strong hand because:
-He cannot necessarily credit you with being able to fully appreciate the tournament situation (especially in the pub).
-He has far more to lose than to gain by raising into the big stacks.
I would be inclined to shove QQ or AKo, but fold TT or JJ. But so much depends on your read of the player.
a few more questions to clarify your decision.
if he shoved would i call?
if he limped would i have shoved?
why is he min raising.
is he comitted?
am i happy to play for a flip when 1 player all in next hand
most important one out of those 4 questions is the first one.
It turned out to be an interesting little hand indeed. No substitute for table time in terms of reonforcing concepts. Thanks all for taking the time to comment.
if he shoved i'm not sure if I would have called or not. Truth is that I didn't think long enough over the rights and wrongs of my re-raise and that was my biggest mistake.
if he limped would i have shoved? Again, I needed to think this through. There is certainly a bigger argument for shoving here because I will be ahead of the vast majority of his range.
why is he min raising. Good qiestion and this is where he got me. It looked to me like a steal with Ax, KT+ or 22+ type hands. I'm coinflipping or ahead of that range.
is he comitted? Probably, having risked most of his stack on a steal, he's really only getting away with total air. Even then, he'll run with live cards.
am i happy to play for a flip when 1 player all in next hand. In retrospect, absolutely not. I'd decided this in advance and got seduced bu the AQ.
I'd like to say that as I've had a few bubble experiences at the ANZPT and online of late that I overcompensated. In retrospect, I rushed a decision for all my chips. Next time, I just need to think it through a lot better.
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