James Surowiecki argues in his book The Wisdom of Crowds that the aggregation of information in groups, results in better decisions than could have been made by any single member of the group. In terms of poker, it is clear that 2+2 can solve the challenge of optimal poker strategy far more quickly than a dozen or more of the top professionals, experienced experts in their field, ever could. Similarly, the exposition of the UB scandal when the crowd garnered and aggregated tiny components of knowledge was incredible and a testament to "crowd-sourcing".
I've been an advocate of this thinking for a couple of years now in business and am convinced that the discipline of crowd-sourcing, leveraging social media technologies, will be increasingly important. I'm a big fan of Betfair too. Apart from the ability to "play the bookie", at any point in time, it is the most reliable of who is going to win an election, Idol or the FA Cup Final. According to wikipedia, Betfair is the world's biggest prediction exchange, with around $28 billion traded in 2007.
The English Premier League has just finished and I've been involved in a Footy Tipping Comp. I know very, very little about the EPL, but I know how to find out who is favourite to win - Betfair. Last night, Man Utd reserves (title was already won) took on Hull City (fighting for survival) at Hull. How could I possibly evaluate the relative strengths of those two teams from the other side of the world. Don't need to, according to Betfair, Utd were a slight favourite to win as was borne out with their 0-1 victory.
By picking the favourites all year (I never picked one draw, its never the favourite) I just managed to scrape home ahead of 2nd place by one point. He occassionally varied his tips when the home and away teams were both the same odds, he'd pick the draw. Over the season, we both ended up well ahead of the other experts. The buy in was $50 each with 26 entrants and 3 places paid. I think that my 1st spot wins about $700, don't really know. I just know that it is always +EV to follow Betfair as the system is almost unbeatable. Certainly attempts to beat the wisdom of crowds is -EV.
Poker thought of the day ... whilst it is essential to mix up your play, don't ever succomb to Fancy Play Syndrome because it is always -EV.
1 year ago
4 comments:
I don't know. There is a lot of false wisdom on 2+2. You need to use your own judgment to sort out the wheat from the chaff.
In a few threads I have been involved in recently on Limit forums, many people seems to advocate the bet/fold line on the river on scary boards (like four to a flush or where overcards have come in). This seems to me to be suicidal in large pots - I have seen way too many crazy river bluffs or weak value raises to be ever confident enough to fold in these situations.
When you ask the crowd, the majority of responses will be wrong. It is averaging the aggregation that produces the accurate outcome.
The other advantage that Betfair has over 2+2 is that when you wager you are more incented to try to be right. Hence the range of frivilous responses will be lower.
As for bet/fold, I guess "it depends". The fact that people think and discuss at that level is a testament to the level of knowledge already available and acquired.
I commend the first half of the book as a stimulating read.
I gave up on 2+2 / all forums. They mainly have entertainment value and time is too short to waste. But mostly don't trust the posts / posters. The wells are sometimes interesting though.
I think we can learn much more from trying really hard to learn from our own mistakes.
I need to have a look at Betfair!
Laff, I take your point on 2+2 and the time consuming nature. The problem is as the blindman says, sorting the wheat from the chaff.
I'd like to point you toward a chaff-free Forum on PokerRoad, for Red Pros only.
For all you mathematicians out there, look at the quality of this post ... http://www.pokerroad.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3936.
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