Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Luck vs Skill - poker provides the ultimate balance

In Australia, we have a game called Two-up that is played on ANZAC Day in memory of the Diggers that fought in Gallipoli in Turkey during World War 1. The game was extremely popular with the troops and was simply a case of having a spinner that would toss two or three coins with everyone around in a circle placing bets with each other on Heads or Tails (a tie was a respin). That's gambling and it's purest and was extremely popular with large sums wagered. In theory, no-one had an advantage or a disadvantage.

Now let's look at Chess. The best player almost always wins. Hence, you run out of opponents willing to play for money pretty quickly in your local neighbourhood if you are World Champion.

Backgammon, is a game of skill whereby the dice "deceives" less capable players in the short term into thinking that there is more luck involved in the game than skill. Over the long run though, the skill element comes to the fore and the best players bubble up to the top. That said, the losing players often extract so much enjoyment from the game that it can far outweigh any modest loses that they make.

But how much skill is there in poker? It's easy to learn but impossible to master with an enormous amount of applied knowledge required if you are committed to reaching the top of the pyramid; which is why poker is clearly a game of skill.

In my opinion, the ideal combination of skill and luck exists. As for the most important skill? Without a doubt, game selection. Invest with your head, not over it. If you are a losing player, try dropping to 1c/2c and working your way up when you KNOW that you are winning at any particular level. You'll be very surprised how difficult it is to win at even these levels but the experience will serve you well at every subsequent level.

4 comments:

parttimebonuschaser said...

Have to agree with your last paragraph there mate.

I would say a good player is significantly better than a poor player in terms of the difference in BB/100.

However, when you take into account rake, that good player could still be in negative territory.

Your level of skill not only has to be better than that of the other players, but better by a sufficient margin to cover rake as well to be profitable on the tables.

Hmm i think I just wrote the same thing twice but in a slightly different way. oh well.

The blindman said...

I think pokerstars needs to learn some grammar ;)

TiocfaidhArLa said...

Succumbing to peer pressure, the original post has been edited ever so slightly. So, please don't beat up on the Blindman or drive yourself bonkers if it appears that grammatical errors no longer exist.

BTW Hat's off, it's an incredible viral marketing concept!

The blindman said...

Haha, nice job. Hope it still qualifies.

It's a brilliant way to generate links for Google (etc) rankings. Pokerstars is currently ranked about 10th when I search for "poker". I have no doubt that will improve.