Variance - love it or hate it?

PLO VARIANCE IS BRUTAL! From being on top of the world in terms of my poker results, I played a series of sessions where my AI EV line stayed positive but my bankroll took a severe hit. I handed back almost 50% of my recent gains in a couple of big hands where I got my money in good.

Thankfully last night I arrested the slide with my confidence pretty low. I won a big hand 3-way for $250 in a FR PLO100 game and then a few hands later won another stack when we both got it in with AA** and I hit my flush. Less than an orbit later, I had the nuts on the Turn when an idiot str8 filled and I got potted into. It was such a confusing board, it took me a second to confirm I had the nutz before shoving. He folded which was emotionally confusing for me. I knew I had the nuts so I want a call, right? Nope, logically if he calls we tie on that board so the fold was way better.

HEM and experience are helping me ride what is an unbelievable emotional rollercoaster. If you are going to concentrate on PLO I strongly suggest keeping a close eye on AIEV to keep tabs on how you are really playing. For me it is a wake up call that after a couple of years of trying hard not to be results oriented, it is very much a work in progress. Also, I had become fairly objective and unemotional to results but after a brutal stretch I found myself cursing my luck.

Taking a few steps back, it is clear that in the live arena, it will be virtaully impossible for the wave of players transitioning to PLO to really know if they are long term winning players or not for many, many years. Needless to say, 95% of us won't be. An opportunity well worth pursuing for those of us that missed the heady days of Party Poker in 2003.

PS Another thanks to Jeff Hwang, when I was struggling, I was still very confident that I was playing solidly thanks to his clear guidance on how to play. It really does help if you're trying to knuckle down and grind.