Saturday, August 30, 2008

Volume - Hours or Multi-tabling

Bugga ... just done some simple maths and it won't be as easy as I thought unless I move up the stakes. As long as I am winning at a level, I can confidently move up when my bankroll supports it.

With proper bankroll management, I'd like at least 300 BB in LH and 20 BIs in NLH to start a new level. Even then, if I fall back below, I'll need to step down again. For my current level of NL50, I should have $1000. At $750 today, I think I'll be fine. Before moving to NL100 though, I'll need $2000, another $1250 = 2500BB. At 2BB/100 hands, I'll be here 4ever, 125K hands.

Even 4 tabling, I'm looking at 200 hands per hour, thats 625hrs. With work commitments I don't come close to full-time, but if I did this would be 16 weeks worth. To prove the concept then, I need to post let's say 10000 hands at a level and win at a certain rate and assume I would have kept that rate and then invest from other funds to expedite the moves up the levels while I'm working. Seems reasonable as long as I'm wary of attributing both downswings and upswings to variance.

10000 hands is 50 x 4-tabling hours. At 5 quality hours per week, I should complete this in 10 weeks and be able to take stock from there. OK - that's a plan! By Nov, I expect to have my bankroll up to $950 being $4/hr * 50 Hrs. I'll also have time to study my game along the way. With only 50 hours, I don't think that I need my A-game, but I can't afford to go on tilt.

Ground Rules: Be honest with all stats, only play NL50 full ring games (8-players or more), where possible always be multi-tabling.

This should be a reasonable simulation. Will keep you posted. Next time, I'll set out a plan for improving my game!

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