Is PLO37.5 my level?

Poker is such a deceptive game in terms of short term results and false reinforcement. Last night I had a session of PLO50 where I probably broke every one of the Hutchison System starting requirements repeatedly. I had a little calculator running alongside for the first time and I kept ignoring its guidance which was 80% Fold and 20% Limp. I only seen 1 Raise advice the whole session and the flop missed on that hand. I on the other hand was fairly aggressive preflop. Still passivish after the flop. One area I did improve was my river value betting.

So after ignoring the Hutchison advice, I turned $50 into $200+ in a couple of hours. Did I run good? Was it the deception that my wide range provided that allowed me to win the big pots? Has my post flop play and board texture reading improved? Alas, I really don't know.

What I do know is that my results are PLO25 (+$337), PLO50 (+$220) and PLO100 (-$240). In BB/100, that appears to be +25, Zero and -7 respectively. It would appear that I am between a PLO25 and PLO50 player for now.

For the record, 6500 hands averaging 9.74PTBB/100.

So where to from here, grind it out at PLO25 for a profit and experience. Or continue to take shots with any excess until I crack the $100. As I have exceeded expectations already, turning a profit at PLO25, I think that I'll continue taking shots as long as I'm not getting too hurt.

Psst ... Don't tell anyone

Having purchased PT Omaha, I finally have an idea of how I'm going. With Badugi, HORSE and all sorts of other distractions that I allow myself, including a Tilt at NLH400 which was a disaster my bankroll just doesn't give me that view.

I've always watched risk of ruin and been happy to step down, but when I get a few extra dollars in the roll I tend to splash it about (invest it) trying different things.

The good news is that I have a broad understanding of the mechanics of a number of the games. Bad news is that I still can't retire and play full time. Hopefully I am incrementally better positioned to transition to Bobby's Big Game though. Can always dream.

So what did I discover ...

- Badugi I didn't enjoy;
- Stud potentially has the complexity I like but I can't see it ever having the $$$s to go professional;
- FLH I really enjoyed but reached levels that I outgrew my ability / potential / bankroll;
- My transition to NLH was incredibly hard but Harrigton sorted me out with a break even TAG style so I can hold my own online and in card rooms now at sociable stakes. Best case, it was only a matter of time before I hit my ceiling in a "solved" game.
- Split games I think I could get to like. Balancing scooping with nut lows is deceptively difficult. This is on hold for now.
- PLO8 combines a lot of concepts, is a lot of fun and is way too complex for me to transition to straight.

PL Omaha, I love! After only a short period I feel that I can hold my own at meaningful levels.

In September I had no real clue about PLO and had only just had my first shot at 4-tabling NLH100. Last night I 4-tabled PLO100, PLO50 and 2xPLO25 for a modest profit on all 4. How can that be? I know I'm making lots of mistakes.

I set up my PTO Categories last night - groupings of hands like Strong Aces. According to 2+2, you should be positive in all categories. I'm way off that. In fact the best hands Strong Aces I'm down almost $300. Clearly overplaying them post flop losing to flushes on co-ordinated boards and trips on uncoordinated. Like slowplaying AA in my early NLH days, I'm clearly making some very costly basic mistakes, yet after 4000+ hands I'm up over 8BB/100 - almost breakeven now on $$$s.

Now for the psst ... Online PLO must be really, really soft right now ... because I suck at that game compared to my 4 years of NLH study and experience ... or I've experienced a variance heater as a fish.

My prediction ... the games are only going to get softer. It is such a buzzy gambling game, I'm convinced that it is the game of the future.

Best of all ... it is a long way from being solved so it is intellectually stimulating.

PokerTracker Omaha

New Years are good for fresh starts. And one of mine was getting serious about PLO. I've been playing and really enjoying the game on and off for a few months now. I got the mechanics at micro stakes and quickly started playing way beyond my bankroll for the variance of the game. I decided to try and ramp up my learning curve even if it cost me a bit - which it did initially.

So I purchased PokerTracker for Omaha yesterday and instantly gained an insight. When I imported my Hand Histories I realised that I was a winning BB/100 player but a losing $ player. Needless to say that what I win at PLO25, I lose at PLO100. That said, my PLO100 is showing signs of breakeven. This is over 3000+ hands so isn't yet a statistically significant sample size.

Omaha is such a different game that I didn't know where to start looking for leaks. No starting hands dominate as much as Hold'em so your pushing smaller edges all the time. If you hate bad beats, you'll hate Omaha. If you realise that no poker beat is really that bad, you'll do well.

In my search for guidance for analysing my play, I stumbled across the best little website I've found in a while. Check this out! I wish I'd known this when I was playing NLH.

http://www.hand-histories.com/opp_prof.html

I'll write some more on PLO when I learn some more ... I really feel like I am only starting out as I now have the tool to study. I can't believe that I routinely push $$s in a single bet greater than the cost of PokerTracker and have never before purchased it.

Go figure ... or go buy!

Knowing your Limits - The "Coin Flip" test

It struck me tonite when I thought about playing 1 table of NL200 or 4-tables of NL50 that there is a very good game selection litmus test for me.

Basically, how do you feel about coin flipping for your stack pre-flop AK v QQ, or similar? If it was NL1, I can't see you giving it a 2nd thought. But NL1000 for me, that wouldn't be my idea of fun, or skill.

As I get increasingly aggressive though, I'm finding that it is essential to be willing to coin flip to avoid being 3-bet off strong marginal hands in position. Playing too weak there can be exploited easily (and its costly - 20+ nit hands a pop).

My last live game, I short stacked for $100 in a NL100-NL250 game, just so I could play comfortably and gamble if need be. I'd never thought about it before. Can you relate to this?

Needless to say, I took the multi-table option tonite, scored a relatively easy $16 over 1 hour of 3 NL50 tables, no risk, no stress and I've even written this post when grinding it out.

PS As if to prove my point, I'd unclicked Autopost Blinds and was in SB with QJ on one of the tables. Bet pot and LAG BB raised pot to $5.50. I shoved $50ish expecting a fold but got called to my dismay by AK. QxxJx - woo hoo! A nice +$73 session in the end. Goodnight!