It struck me tonite when I thought about playing 1 table of NL200 or 4-tables of NL50 that there is a very good game selection litmus test for me.
Basically, how do you feel about coin flipping for your stack pre-flop AK v QQ, or similar? If it was NL1, I can't see you giving it a 2nd thought. But NL1000 for me, that wouldn't be my idea of fun, or skill.
As I get increasingly aggressive though, I'm finding that it is essential to be willing to coin flip to avoid being 3-bet off strong marginal hands in position. Playing too weak there can be exploited easily (and its costly - 20+ nit hands a pop).
My last live game, I short stacked for $100 in a NL100-NL250 game, just so I could play comfortably and gamble if need be. I'd never thought about it before. Can you relate to this?
Needless to say, I took the multi-table option tonite, scored a relatively easy $16 over 1 hour of 3 NL50 tables, no risk, no stress and I've even written this post when grinding it out.
PS As if to prove my point, I'd unclicked Autopost Blinds and was in SB with QJ on one of the tables. Bet pot and LAG BB raised pot to $5.50. I shoved $50ish expecting a fold but got called to my dismay by AK. QxxJx - woo hoo! A nice +$73 session in the end. Goodnight!
1 year ago
4 comments:
Interesting thought - although its probably deeper than coin flips.
If you're playing outside your comfort zone you're probably going to be playing a bit scared in quite a number of spots, which can't be optimal poker. You will probably cbet less, call more rather than raise, and generally get yourself into trouble by playing too timidly.
Not so sure about your PS .. that's definitely not a coin flip although closer if your coin has 2 heads :)
and you're betting on tails ...
I read early that you can't win with scared money and it is so true. I now have my own wee simple (like me) litmus test.
Now, I'd be interested in some structured hand analysis on the shove. It may be closer than you think.
I put him on a hand range of approx250 combinations to 3-bet there. Calling my shove is much less, maybe 20% of that. I lose $30 on average (20% of the time) when called and win $6.50, 80% of the time on a fold).
10 trials delivers -$60 +$52 = -$8
or -$0.80 per shove, insignificant as a %.
Are my maths or my assumptions wrong here? I gave it a lot of thought today and consulted the Maths of Poker when I got home. Chapter 12 has a Jam/Fold game - can you have a read and let me know what you think.
It could be argued that my effective stacks to blind ratio was 10 given the re-raise. All of the above is predicated on the fact that he really was extremely LAG and his raise range was very large in that spot.
Based on your feedback, I may need to escalate to 2+2 :-).
PS If I am right, the benefits of image when called are potentially valuable if I am smart enough to exploit them - fish or lunatic.
mmm you could be right there - its definitely closer than i first thought.
I dont use pokerstove though so not sure, as i'd probably want to use that to work out the average loss when called - I guess thats what the 2p2 guys are for :)
Post a Comment