Expected Value of Happiness

I had typed this as a response to the Blindmans comment on last nights session (please read it first) but have elevated to this level as I'd be keen to get some comments on the EV of Happiness and results orientation ...

"Very perceptive as always on the end. I subscribe to the theory that life should be treated as one big poker session yet I can still be results oriented ... an observation made by way of comment to BCG in the last few days.

Now, there is also EV in happiness. Some might say much more than the few dollars I risk at the tables - especially my recent 1c/2c foray.

The last bet on the last hand was a unique occassion. If the game was continuing I would most likely have value bet. But here's the rub, according to Daniel Negreanu in a recent PokerRoad podcast (I think) ... Never ... never ... make a bet if you don't know in advance how you will respond to a raise. ... I've been trying to keep this in mind and it is very important in NLH. Limit, you just call down, but in NLH the bets grow exponentially.

Remember, we're both relatively deep, its late, last hand, error prone. The pot was $100, so what would I bet? $30 invites a raise, $50 maybe, $70 probably, $100 definitely becomes a re-raise or fold for the other guy. What would I have done if raised ... I'm not sure and I didn't fancy the spot at that time. You are right though, I probably wshuld have fired $70 mid-session and hoped to be called down.

Back to happiness EV, I went back to my hotel very pleased with my play in Auckland, live and online. Had I re-opened the betting and lost to a full house it would have undone my good work and may well have changed my psychology for future sessions. As it stands, I can't wait to get back to the tables."

... So what do you think? It would be great to be a non-tilting machine, but realistically, even the best guys play better when in the zone or confident. Thinking it through, +EV is much more than the maths of one out of context Structured Hand Analysis. A similar situation is when top players go on a cooler, they can sometimes just start to play a lower variance style to regain more confidence.

So as we near the end of the month, happiness should form part of my goal setting balanced scorecard if I was disciplined and honest enough to get around to that.

I'd really appreciate your thoughts on this concept ...