Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Confidence is a wonderful thing

My father once asked me "What is the most important shot in golf?". My answer was "The first one", but he had a better one "the next one". That didn't make my answer wrong. If I don't get off that first tee well, I rarely have a great round. And so it is with poker. This hand came up last night. Just like AK v QQ is a classic holdem race, flopping the nut set v a big draw is a classic PLO race. Up against 2 opponents though, it's a nerve wrecking feeling when holding on.



This was only a couple of hands into a session where I was well aware that I was taking another shot that I wasn't necessarily bankrolled for and my intention was to play tight. Just too good a spot to miss out on. If you can't play right at a level, then don't play. This is close to my biggest PLO pot ever and thankfully it went my way. Consulting CardPlayer, my equity at the time of the shove was a generous 57% the way things fell.

From here, I found myself big stack and went from strength to strength as I ran hot. Left a couple of hours later with my biggest ever haul from a single PLO session, a profit of 5.5BIs, or $550 (and USD at that) - woo hoo! Had the 43% come in, it would have been a very different Post. I think we under-estimate confidence and the absence of it. In SuperSystem, Brunson states that regardless of what the maths guys say, "rushes" do occur and you should go with them. That that is where your profit comes from.

I'm a math guy and I can't put my finger on it but last night was a rush and I seemed to sense it as it was unfolding. Bed o'clock was when the big hand hit twelve and the little hand one. Do you believe in rushes?

2 comments:

The blindman said...

True "Math guys" will tell you that rushes do absolutely occur. That's not to say that if you've won the last five hands you are any more or less likely to win the next (except where your run influences the other players), but over a long run you will hit many short bursts of great hands.

My view is not that your profit comes from the "rushes", but rather that it comes from the small margins that you squeeze out in every session. It may mean losing a bit less money when the cards turn bad, or squeezing out a few extra when you have a monster.

TiocfaidhArLa said...

Your comment is in line with my view that humans are incredible pattern recognition machines, ie we notice the short term bursts.

Doyle claims more than that though and tries to enter the following pot after every win to increase the chance of rushes.

Last night felt more than a retrospective tally of results. That said, the phenomenon was most likely a change in behaviours as I commanded respect based on the fact that i could always put their entire stack at risk with one mouse click.